Tag Archives: models

What exactly can network models predict? Updated for 2026

Ecological networks quantify the diversity of direct and indirect interactions taking place in nature. However, due to their complexity, ecologists rely heavily on the use of metrics to summarize aspects of network structure thought to be of biological importance. Many of these structural features are non-random and strongly conserved across diverse habitats and species assemblages, begging the question: what factors determine network structure? The most successful hypotheses to explain these patterns are the neutrality and biological constraints hypotheses, which posit that species interactions can be explained by trait mismatches, and relative abundances respectively. In the Early View paper “Species traits and relative abundances predict metrics of plant-pollinator network structure, but not pairwise interactions” in Oikos, we Colin Olito and Jeremy W. Fox, evaluate the relative ability of trait-based and neutral models of species interactions to explain the structure of a temporally resolved alpine plant-pollinator visitation network.

 

An unidentified muscid visiting Erigeron peregrinus. Although their charm often goes unappreciated, flies are by far the most diverse and abundant pollinators in the alpine. Interestingly, many of their behaviours that facilitate pollination differ markedly from more intensively studied foraging pollinators, such as bumblebees. Understanding their crucial role in alpine and high-latitude plant-pollinator communities will require a greater understanding of both their reproductive and foraging biology. Photo credit: Martin Fees.

An unidentified muscid visiting Erigeron peregrinus. Although their charm often goes unappreciated, flies are by far the most diverse and abundant pollinators in the alpine. Interestingly, many of their behaviours that facilitate pollination differ markedly from more intensively studied foraging pollinators, such as bumblebees. Understanding their crucial role in alpine and high-latitude plant-pollinator communities will require a greater understanding of both their reproductive and foraging biology. Photo credit: Martin Fees.

As our title suggests, species traits and relative abundances successfully predicted every metric of network structure tested, but failed to predict observed interactions. That is, a variety of models can predict network metrics well, but for the wrong reasons. We explore the implications of this contrast, and highlight potential problems with the use and interpretation of network metrics. We also found that species phenologies (the timing of flowering or pollinator activity) always out-performed neutral models at predicting pairwise interactions, and discuss limitations of neutral models of network structure, particularly when species interactions are under-sampled. We suggest that future progress in explaining the structure and dynamics of ecological networks will require new approaches that emphasize accurate prediction of species interactions rather than network metrics, and better reflect the biology underlying species interactions.

Sampling plant-pollinator interactions in a low-alpine meadow in Kananaskis Country, Alberta, Canada. Photo credit: Martin Fees.

Sampling plant-pollinator interactions in a low-alpine meadow in Kananaskis Country, Alberta, Canada. Photo credit: Martin Fees.

Frugivory and seed dispersal Updated for 2026

What is it that determines if a bird should deposit a seed from a fruit in a specific place or not? I the Early View paper “Seed dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes: linking field observations with spatially explicit models”, Jessica E Lavabre ad colleagues combines modelling with empirical studies to find out! Below is the author’s summary of the study.

Frugivorous birds play a critical role in the population dynamics of many fleshy-fruited plants by defining the template for the establishment of new individuals. Because successful germination and subsequent seedling survival is highly dependent upon the micro-habitat where a seed arrives, it is crucial to understand which factors drive seed deposition. In our study, we aimed to take an important step forward in understanding the complex mechanisms that generate the spatial patterns of seed dispersal. Few studies have previously modelled seed dispersal in a real landscape, mostly because real vegetation structure is often highly heterogeneous. Here, we have taken advantage of a simple study system to parametrize mechanistic seed-dispersal models with empirical field data, and we built three models that test three seed-dispersal predictors: distance from the source tree, microhabitat type, and a combination of both distance from the source and microhabitat type.

To our greatest surprise, the third model, combining distance and microhabitat type, did not perform significantly better than the other two, simpler models. Additionally, our results suggested that what we had initially considered as one population could instead be two functionally distinct patches, with distinct seed dispersal dynamics. Altogether, these results reinforce the hypothesis that functionally distinct groups of frugivore species generate scale specific seed rain patterns.

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